Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Green Bay Packers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$78.82
54.4¢ → 48.5¢
-11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN ancianoCTR | Noavg 59¢ | $596.75 | $805.68 | -$142.98 | 52% 1168-1072 (2240) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Yesavg 42.1¢ | $520.46 | $442.36 | +$73.98 | 43% 469-622 (1091) |
 TimeTravelerARB<$100 | Noavg 47.6¢ | $346.96 | $437.67 | +$96.59 | 41% 2002-2836 (4838) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $157.55 | $249.45 | +$89.18 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47.6¢ | $186.69 | $188.21 | +$7.41 | |
BA ballincoCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $351.28 | $351.28 | +$10.98 | 52% 153-140 (293) |
 extractive-manateeCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $146.99 | $288.63 | -$16.45 | 33% 537-1075 (1612) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 52.3¢ | $1.4K | $68.4 | -$2.38 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $5.82 | $3.84 | -$1.98 | 66% 918-479 (1397) |
Invested
$596.75
Value
$805.68
PnL
-$142.98
Record
52%
1168-1072 (2240)
Invested
$520.46
Value
$442.36
PnL
+$73.98
Record
43%
469-622 (1091)
TimeTravelerARB<$100Invested
$346.96
Value
$437.67
PnL
+$96.59
Record
41%
2002-2836 (4838)
Both legs:
Invested
$351.28
Value
$351.28
PnL
+$10.98
Record
52%
153-140 (293)
extractive-manateeCTRInvested
$146.99
Value
$288.63
PnL
-$16.45
Record
33%
537-1075 (1612)
Invested
$1,385.67
Value
$68.4
PnL
-$2.38
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
Invested
$5.82
Value
$3.84
PnL
-$1.98
Record
66%
918-479 (1397)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.