Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Florida Panthers make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 26¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 16, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$1.7K
-$8.07
23¢ → 25.5¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JustADonk | Yesavg 82¢ | $820 | $715 | -$115 | 55% 892-736 (1628) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Noavg 26.6¢ | $426 | $408 | -$18 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
 NooseracCTR | Noavg 18¢ | $216 | $312 | +$96 | 52% 5767-5338 (11105) |
RO royalestakeCTR | Noavg 23¢ | $273.31 | $303.01 | +$29.71 | 46% 375-436 (811) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 29.5¢ | $11.26 | $6.83 | -$0.78 | 57% 13591-10418 (24009) |
JustADonkInvested
$820
Value
$715
PnL
-$115
Record
55%
892-736 (1628)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$426
Value
$408
PnL
-$18
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
NooseracCTRInvested
$216
Value
$312
PnL
+$96
Record
52%
5767-5338 (11105)
Invested
$273.31
Value
$303.01
PnL
+$29.71
Record
46%
375-436 (811)
Invested
$11.26
Value
$6.83
PnL
-$0.78
Record
57%
13591-10418 (24009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.