Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $261 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$261.1
-$40.76
7.8¢ → 6.5¢
-16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+33 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
694h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
21 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $104 | $85 | -$39 | 42% 1968-2772 (4740) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $89.63 | $84.65 | -$24.89 | 41% 1279-1825 (3104) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $35 | $42.5 | -$2.5 | 57% 3062-2327 (5389) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $17.27 | $34 | +$16.74 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $6.05 | $14.95 | +$8.9 | 45% 1888-2337 (4225) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$104
Value
$85
PnL
-$39
Record
42%
1968-2772 (4740)
Invested
$89.63
Value
$84.65
PnL
-$24.89
Record
41%
1279-1825 (3104)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$35
Value
$42.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
57%
3062-2327 (5389)
Invested
$17.27
Value
$34
PnL
+$16.74
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$14.95
PnL
+$8.9
Record
45%
1888-2337 (4225)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.