Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 87¢ · $522 held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$522.25

Combined PnL

-$2.13

Smart Money Entry

83.6¢ → 87.2¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$507.73

Total Shares590

Combined PnL-$13.33

Yes2 traders

Total Value$14.39

Total Shares97

Combined PnL+$11.21

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

179h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 85.9¢	$183.23	$175.69	-$7.54	56% 18844-15013 (33857)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 77.6¢	$28.69	$135.3	-$4.27	53% 24137-21182 (45319)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$87	$85.1	-$1.9	17% 4523-22222 (26745)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$73.55	$74.89	+$1.07	26% 7395-21197 (28592)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$37.13	$36.76	-$0.7	53% 8668-7775 (16443)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$2.96	$11.04	+$8.3	47% 2084-2393 (4477)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$147.42	$3.35	+$2.91	70% 14098-5954 (20052)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$183.23

Value

$175.69

PnL

-$7.54

Record

56%

18844-15013 (33857)

cigarettes

Invested

$28.69

Value

$135.3

PnL

-$4.27

Record

53%

24137-21182 (45319)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$87

Value

$85.1

PnL

-$1.9

Record

17%

4523-22222 (26745)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$73.55

Value

$74.89

PnL

+$1.07

Record

26%

7395-21197 (28592)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$37.13

Value

$36.76

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

8668-7775 (16443)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.96

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$8.3

Record

47%

2084-2393 (4477)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.42

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$2.91

Record

70%

14098-5954 (20052)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

179h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.7%

87.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.