Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$1.3K
-$2.08
98.4¢ → 97.5¢
-1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $419.31 | $419.31 | +$0 | 86% 36-6 (42) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 98.4¢ | $352.41 | $351.56 | -$0.85 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.6¢ | $226.49 | $225.57 | -$0.92 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $98.79 | $98.51 | -$0.28 | 42% 321-439 (760) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $58.74 | $58.92 | +$0.18 | 41% 324-472 (796) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $30.54 | $30.44 | -$0.09 | 40% 644-964 (1608) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $19.72 | $19.64 | -$0.08 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $19.66 | $19.64 | -$0.02 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $19.66 | $19.64 | -$0.02 | 13% 50-327 (377) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $8.45 | $8.45 | +$0 | 29% 866-2137 (3003) |
Invested
$419.31
Value
$419.31
PnL
+$0
Record
86%
36-6 (42)
Invested
$352.41
Value
$351.56
PnL
-$0.85
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
balthazarInvested
$226.49
Value
$225.57
PnL
-$0.92
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$98.79
Value
$98.51
PnL
-$0.28
Record
42%
321-439 (760)
Invested
$58.74
Value
$58.92
PnL
+$0.18
Record
41%
324-472 (796)
Invested
$30.54
Value
$30.44
PnL
-$0.09
Record
40%
644-964 (1608)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.72
Value
$19.64
PnL
-$0.08
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$19.66
Value
$19.64
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$19.66
Value
$19.64
PnL
-$0.02
Record
13%
50-327 (377)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$8.45
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
866-2137 (3003)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
korda77
No — $419.31
Bigggggggg
No — $351.56
balthazar
No — $225.57
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $98.51
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $58.92
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $30.44
Lucerys
No — $19.64
cigarettes
No — $19.64
god83743894
No — $19.64
mildwindow27
No — $8.45