Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 28¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 28, 2027

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Apr 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$147.28

Smart Money Entry

24.2¢ → 28.5¢

+18% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,903

Combined PnL+$147.79

No1 trader

Total Value$9.22

Total Shares13

Combined PnL-$0.51

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CD CDAP1CTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$919.01	$1.1K	+$140.34	30% 11-26 (37)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 76¢	$409.05	$405	-$4	23% 287-958 (1245)
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$307.75	$289.58	-$18.18
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$101.25	$115.43	+$14.17
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$26.15	$33.6	+$7.45	60% 3286-2205 (5491)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 76¢	$9.73	$9.22	-$0.51	—

CDAP1CTR

Yes

Invested

$919.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$140.34

Record

30%

11-26 (37)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$409.05

Value

$405

PnL

-$4

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

Both legs:

Invested

$26.15

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$7.45

Record

60%

3286-2205 (5491)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$9.73

Value

$9.22

PnL

-$0.51

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.