Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $390 held · ends Mar 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$390.09
$2.38
97.7¢ → 98.4¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 97.9¢ | $269.23 | $270.33 | +$1.1 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $43.61 | $44.56 | +$0.95 | 39% 1049-1630 (2679) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $30.35 | $30.47 | +$0.12 | 36% 259-467 (726) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $19.58 | $19.68 | +$0.1 | 17% 54-272 (326) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $19.58 | $19.66 | +$0.08 | 36% 2999-5341 (8340) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $5.19 | $5.22 | +$0.03 | 53% 5376-4855 (10231) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $0.18 | $0.18 | +$0 | 53% 323-288 (611) |
Invested
$269.23
Value
$270.33
PnL
+$1.1
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
Invested
$43.61
Value
$44.56
PnL
+$0.95
Record
39%
1049-1630 (2679)
Invested
$30.35
Value
$30.47
PnL
+$0.12
Record
36%
259-467 (726)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$19.68
PnL
+$0.1
Record
17%
54-272 (326)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.58
Value
$19.66
PnL
+$0.08
Record
36%
2999-5341 (8340)
Invested
$5.19
Value
$5.22
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
5376-4855 (10231)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.18
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
323-288 (611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.