Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 12¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.1K
$422.76
7.3¢ → 11.5¢
+59% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
657h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
16 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BT BTCGambler247CTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $291.23 | $457.64 | +$187.26 | 47% 217-240 (457) |
 NooseracCTR | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $199.93 | $323.88 | +$123.96 | 52% 5751-5327 (11078) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $214.18 | $273.99 | +$72.28 | 41% 1278-1824 (3102) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $11.32 | $49.45 | +$38.13 | 45% 1847-2279 (4126) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $23.77 | $24.9 | +$1.13 | 57% 3057-2313 (5370) |
Invested
$291.23
Value
$457.64
PnL
+$187.26
Record
47%
217-240 (457)
NooseracCTRInvested
$199.93
Value
$323.88
PnL
+$123.96
Record
52%
5751-5327 (11078)
Invested
$214.18
Value
$273.99
PnL
+$72.28
Record
41%
1278-1824 (3102)
Invested
$11.32
Value
$49.45
PnL
+$38.13
Record
45%
1847-2279 (4126)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$23.77
Value
$24.9
PnL
+$1.13
Record
57%
3057-2313 (5370)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.