Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the February meeting?

2 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 83¢ · $317 held · ends Feb 4, 2027

Yes83¢No17¢Ends Thu, Feb 4, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 13%

Total Value

$317.06

Combined PnL

$26.18

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 82.5¢

-5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 16 top traders (13%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$111.25

Total Shares132

Combined PnL-$5.52

No14 traders

Total Value$205.81

Total Shares1,176

Combined PnL+$31.7

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Yesavg 87¢	$104.4	$99	-$5.4	53% 40-36 (76)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$39.6	$53.32	+$13.72	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 14.3¢	$38.33	$46.97	+$8.64	39% 1297-2005 (3302)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 14.8¢	$22.2	$26.25	+$4.05	40% 1456-2158 (3614)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 16.4¢	$22.55	$24.04	+$1.49	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$12.37	$12.25	-$0.12	24% 82-266 (348)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 17.9¢	$12.56	$12.25	-$0.31	12% 21-155 (176)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$10.2	$10.5	+$0.3	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 15.8¢	$6.32	$7	+$0.68	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$4.16	$5.59	+$1.44	28% 368-936 (1304)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$4.5	$5.25	+$0.75	27% 936-2514 (3450)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Noavg 16.8¢	$5.03	$5.25	+$0.22	— 2-14 (16)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$3.4	$3.5	+$0.1	79% 380-101 (481)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$2.26	$2.47	+$0.21	43% 387-516 (903)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$2.25	$2.47	+$0.21	41% 689-993 (1682)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$0.76	$0.95	+$0.19	30% 513-1183 (1696)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$104.4

Value

$99

PnL

-$5.4

Record

53%

40-36 (76)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$39.6

Value

$53.32

PnL

+$13.72

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$38.33

Value

$46.97

PnL

+$8.64

Record

39%

1297-2005 (3302)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$26.25

PnL

+$4.05

Record

40%

1456-2158 (3614)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$22.55

Value

$24.04

PnL

+$1.49

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.37

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$0.12

Record

24%

82-266 (348)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$12.56

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$0.31

Record

12%

21-155 (176)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$6.32

Value

PnL

+$0.68

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Invested

$4.16

Value

$5.59

PnL

+$1.44

Record

28%

368-936 (1304)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.22

Record

—

2-14 (16)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

79%

380-101 (481)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.47

PnL

+$0.21

Record

43%

387-516 (903)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.47

PnL

+$0.21

Record

41%

689-993 (1682)

zerone777CTR<$100

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.19

Record

30%

513-1183 (1696)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 16 top traders (13%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.