Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $645 held · ends Feb 4, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$644.81
$3.34
98.9¢ → 99.6¢
+1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 42%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 98.8¢ | $137.78 | $138.88 | +$1.11 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
AN anothercoin | Noavg 98.8¢ | $132.64 | $133.67 | +$1.03 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $88.89 | $89.64 | +$0.75 | 25% 822-2479 (3301) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $80.09 | $80.58 | +$0.49 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $59.49 | $59.76 | +$0.27 | 26% 899-2508 (3407) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $54.48 | $54.73 | +$0.25 | 50% 4547-4459 (9006) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $39.6 | $39.84 | +$0.24 | 29% 2519-6167 (8686) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $38.52 | $38.77 | +$0.25 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $7.26 | $7.3 | +$0.04 | 53% 5388-4864 (10252) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $1.75 | $0.65 | -$1.1 | 15% 15-85 (100) |
LucerysInvested
$137.78
Value
$138.88
PnL
+$1.11
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$132.64
Value
$133.67
PnL
+$1.03
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$88.89
Value
$89.64
PnL
+$0.75
Record
25%
822-2479 (3301)
Invested
$80.09
Value
$80.58
PnL
+$0.49
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
Invested
$59.49
Value
$59.76
PnL
+$0.27
Record
26%
899-2508 (3407)
balthazar<$100Invested
$54.48
Value
$54.73
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
4547-4459 (9006)
Invested
$39.6
Value
$39.84
PnL
+$0.24
Record
29%
2519-6167 (8686)
Invested
$38.52
Value
$38.77
PnL
+$0.25
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Invested
$7.26
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
5388-4864 (10252)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.75
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$1.1
Record
15%
15-85 (100)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.