Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.1K
-$0.87
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.8¢ | $907.48 | $906.91 | -$0.58 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $74.85 | $74.81 | -$0.04 | 4% 17-366 (383) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $51.71 | $51.63 | -$0.08 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $51.71 | $51.63 | -$0.08 | 28% 521-1360 (1881) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $51.77 | $30.08 | -$0.1 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
LucerysInvested
$907.48
Value
$906.91
PnL
-$0.58
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$74.85
Value
$74.81
PnL
-$0.04
Record
4%
17-366 (383)
Invested
$51.71
Value
$51.63
PnL
-$0.08
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$51.71
Value
$51.63
PnL
-$0.08
Record
28%
521-1360 (1881)
Invested
$51.77
Value
$30.08
PnL
-$0.1
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.