Will The Drama win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $884 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$884.14

Combined PnL

$3.02

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$880.85

Total Shares883

Combined PnL+$10.69

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.43

Total Shares712

Combined PnL-$7.67

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL plainfolder	Noavg 99.8¢	$209.63	$209.48	-$0.15	31% 3549-7933 (11482)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 99.8¢	$258.49	$198.5	+$11.29	51% 3760-3626 (7386)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.7¢	$448.66	$128.21	-$0.09	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.8¢	$124.75	$124.69	-$0.06	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$94.78	$94.67	-$0.12	50% 9914-9924 (19838)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$74.83	$74.72	-$0.11	53% 29752-26614 (56366)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.8¢	$237.87	$50.59	-$0.07	75% 13065-4252 (17317)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.56	$1.75	-$3.81	39% 664-1053 (1717)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yes	$0.37	$0.37	-$2.27	18% 34-151 (185)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.9	$0.31	-$1.59	36% 2034-3660 (5694)

plainfolder

Invested

$209.63

Value

$209.48

PnL

-$0.15

Record

31%

3549-7933 (11482)

haveagoodday

Invested

$258.49

Value

$198.5

PnL

+$11.29

Record

51%

3760-3626 (7386)

cigarettes

Invested

$448.66

Value

$128.21

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

smallreceipt

Invested

$124.75

Value

$124.69

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$94.78

Value

$94.67

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

9914-9924 (19838)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$74.83

Value

$74.72

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

29752-26614 (56366)

Lucerys

Invested

$237.87

Value

$50.59

PnL

-$0.07

Record

75%

13065-4252 (17317)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$3.81

Record

39%

664-1053 (1717)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$2.27

Record

18%

34-151 (185)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$1.59

Record

36%

2034-3660 (5694)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.