Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Detroit Red Wings be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $24 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$24.47
-$60.78
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
97h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $19.89 | $10.94 | -$8.95 | 49% 6333-6486 (12819) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $31.52 | $9.9 | -$21.62 | 39% 2908-4509 (7417) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $10.18 | $1.93 | -$8.71 | 40% 1583-2384 (3967) |
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $18.8 | $1.09 | -$17.71 | 58% 296-217 (513) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.9 | $0.33 | -$1.49 | 53% 23800-20961 (44761) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $2.59 | $0.29 | -$2.31 | 28% 579-1489 (2068) |
Invested
$19.89
Value
$10.94
PnL
-$8.95
Record
49%
6333-6486 (12819)
Invested
$31.52
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$21.62
Record
39%
2908-4509 (7417)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$10.18
Value
$1.93
PnL
-$8.71
Record
40%
1583-2384 (3967)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$1.09
PnL
-$17.71
Record
58%
296-217 (513)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$1.49
Record
53%
23800-20961 (44761)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$0.29
PnL
-$2.31
Record
28%
579-1489 (2068)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.