Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Denver Nuggets be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $176 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$176
-$28.93
5.7¢ → 4.5¢
-22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Late
828h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHANCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $79.83 | $57.07 | -$33.14 | 67% 1171-589 (1760) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $32.5 | $35.75 | -$3.25 | 41% 2126-3051 (5177) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $25 | $31.56 | -$2.87 | 55% 3181-2635 (5816) |
AN ancianoCTR | Yes | $285.63 | $29.62 | +$4.09 | 54% 1464-1226 (2690) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $14.71 | $22 | +$6.24 | 39% 2905-4500 (7405) |
DEGENKHANCTR<$100Invested
$79.83
Value
$57.07
PnL
-$33.14
Record
67%
1171-589 (1760)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$32.5
Value
$35.75
PnL
-$3.25
Record
41%
2126-3051 (5177)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$25
Value
$31.56
PnL
-$2.87
Record
55%
3181-2635 (5816)
Invested
$285.63
Value
$29.62
PnL
+$4.09
Record
54%
1464-1226 (2690)
Invested
$14.71
Value
$22
PnL
+$6.24
Record
39%
2905-4500 (7405)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.