Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democrats win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$6.76

Combined PnL

-$897.74

Smart Money Entry

7.7¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$6.76

Total Shares11,759

Combined PnL-$897.74

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

695h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$464.34	$3.89	-$460.45	47% 1566-1776 (3342)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$149.38	$0.97	-$148.41	60% 7176-4688 (11864)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$92.32	$0.6	-$91.72	25% 180-534 (714)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$85.7	$0.56	-$85.14	30% 320-759 (1079)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$85.7	$0.56	-$85.14	30% 350-813 (1163)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$16.37	$0.11	-$16.29	62% 13833-8580 (22413)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$7.69	$0.05	-$7.64	30% 367-838 (1205)
ImJustKenCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$2.97	$0.02	-$2.95	53% 3043-2720 (5763)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR

Yes

Invested

$464.34

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$460.45

Record

47%

1566-1776 (3342)

qwen300.fundCTR

Yes

Invested

$149.38

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$148.41

Record

60%

7176-4688 (11864)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.32

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$91.72

Record

25%

180-534 (714)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.7

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$85.14

Record

30%

320-759 (1079)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.7

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$85.14

Record

30%

350-813 (1163)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.37

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$16.29

Record

62%

13833-8580 (22413)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.69

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$7.64

Record

30%

367-838 (1205)

ImJustKenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.97

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.95

Record

53%

3043-2720 (5763)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

695h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.