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PolyConsensus
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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will the Democrats win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?

Resolved No. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

19

No 89%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$19.88

Smart Money Signal

No

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders
Total Value$1.6K
Total Shares1,558
Combined PnL+$99.11
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,804
Combined PnL-$79.23
No — 84%Yes — 16%
CoinTrick
No

Invested

$324.97

Value

$325.5

PnL

+$0.53

Record

98%

4104-100 (4204)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly
No

Invested

$185.05

Value

$193.36

PnL

+$8.31

Record

56%

15706-12366 (28072)

CI
cigarettes
No

Invested

$176.51

Value

$190

PnL

+$13.49

Record

53%

22161-19289 (41450)

0X
0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938
No

Invested

$132.17

Value

$132.09

PnL

+$53.98

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

0X
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No

Invested

$101.7

Value

$105.19

PnL

+$3.49

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

0X
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100
No

Invested

$76.71

Value

$80.16

PnL

+$3.45

Record

39%

992-1523 (2515)

0X
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100
No

Invested

$76.79

Value

$80.16

PnL

+$3.37

Record

38%

997-1606 (2603)

0X
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100
No

Invested

$76.76

Value

$80.13

PnL

+$3.37

Record

47%

1630-1807 (3437)

0X
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100
No

Invested

$76.69

Value

$80.05

PnL

+$3.36

Record

39%

1003-1586 (2589)

0X
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100
No

Invested

$76.58

Value

$80.02

PnL

+$3.44

Record

47%

2081-2362 (4443)

0X
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100
No

Invested

$76.57

Value

$80.01

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

IN
influenz.eth<$100
No

Invested

$63.32

Value

$66.12

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

10311-14332 (24643)

MI
mildwindow27<$100
No

Invested

$28.74

Value

$30

PnL

+$1.26

Record

47%

8156-9340 (17496)

balthazar<$100
No

Invested

$19.76

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

WO
wokerjoesleeper<$100
No

Invested

$9.29

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.71

Record

32%

6365-13274 (19639)

0X
0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100
No

Invested

$4.89

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

2633-2726 (5359)

GA
GaditimaCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$69.64

Value

—

PnL

-$69.64

Record

48%

6965-7593 (14558)

PE
peepeepooppoopCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$35.79

Value

—

PnL

-$5.84

Record

51%

2210-2124 (4334)

DEGENKHANCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$14.2

Value

—

PnL

-$3.75

Record

67%

1133-570 (1703)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x3de9b3f6...d97a1d
Slug
will-the-democrats-win-the-arkansas-governor-race-in-2026

Traders in this Market

CoinTrick

No — $325.5

+$0.53

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

No — $193.36

+$8.31
CI

cigarettes

No — $190

+$13.49
0X

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

No — $132.09

+$53.98
0X

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

No — $105.19

+$3.49
0X

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

No — $80.16

+$3.45
0X

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

No — $80.16

+$3.37
0X

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

No — $80.13

+$3.37
0X

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

No — $80.05

+$3.36
0X

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

No — $80.02

+$3.44
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