Will the Democrats win New Hampshire in the 2028 Presidential Election?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 74¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 11%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$159.05

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,401

Combined PnL+$245.52

No8 traders

Total Value$568.86

Total Shares2,147

Combined PnL-$86.47

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 67.9¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$245.52	— 4-15 (19)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Noavg 31¢	$272.8	$233.2	-$39.6	4% 1-27 (28)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR	Noavg 32¢	$224.32	$185.77	-$38.55	26% 378-1078 (1456)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$51.3	$50.35	-$0.95	51% 4655-4529 (9184)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$50.4	$47.7	-$2.7	53% 5671-5100 (10771)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 28.4¢	$29.85	$27.83	-$2.02	26% 860-2483 (3343)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$12.14	$11.92	-$0.22	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$11.41	$9.45	-$1.96	10% 3-27 (30)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$3.1	$2.65	-$0.45	23% 511-1698 (2209)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$2,989.48

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$245.52

Record

—

4-15 (19)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Invested

$272.8

Value

$233.2

PnL

-$39.6

Record

1-27 (28)

VerilyWinninglyCTR

Invested

$224.32

Value

$185.77

PnL

-$38.55

Record

26%

378-1078 (1456)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$51.3

Value

$50.35

PnL

-$0.95

Record

51%

4655-4529 (9184)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$50.4

Value

$47.7

PnL

-$2.7

Record

53%

5671-5100 (10771)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$29.85

Value

$27.83

PnL

-$2.02

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$12.14

Value

$11.92

PnL

-$0.22

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$11.41

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$1.96

Record

10%

3-27 (30)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.45

Record

23%

511-1698 (2209)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.3%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.