Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$6.2K

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 92.3¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,103

Combined PnL+$6.3K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$251.76

Total Shares3,713

Combined PnL-$140.49

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SitsToPee	Noavg 89.3¢	$820.15	$806.4	+$6.3K	61% 289-185 (474)
GayPrideCTR	Yesavg 10.4¢	$352.04	$214.83	-$152.65	49% 357-367 (724)
macrosteaks	No	$151.45	$151.45	+$0.78	55% 3435-2832 (6267)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$52.99	$51.4	-$1.32	58% 18645-13742 (32387)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$55.18	$50.83	+$41.74	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
└ No leg	Noavg 90.8¢	$29.11	$29.57	+$31.92
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.4¢	$12.09	$21.26	+$9.82
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$20.53	$31.01	+$10.48	54% 22050-19158 (41208)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$21.37	$21.3	+$0.08	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$2.19	$3.36	+$1.17	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$1.64	$2.56	+$0.52	52% 1173-1079 (2252)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$1.12	$1.12	-$0	39% 5316-8317 (13633)

SitsToPee

Invested

$820.15

Value

$806.4

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$352.04

Value

$214.83

PnL

-$152.65

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

macrosteaks

Invested

$151.45

Value

$151.45

PnL

+$0.78

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$52.99

Value

$51.4

PnL

-$1.32

Record

58%

18645-13742 (32387)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Invested

$55.18

Value

$50.83

PnL

+$41.74

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

Both legs:

Invested

$20.53

Value

$31.01

PnL

+$10.48

Record

54%

22050-19158 (41208)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$21.37

Value

$21.3

PnL

+$0.08

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.19

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$1.17

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.52

Record

52%

1173-1079 (2252)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

5316-8317 (13633)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.5%

92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.