Will the Democratic Party win the VA-02 House seat?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$72.58

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 94.5¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,786

Combined PnL+$130.32

No5 traders

Total Value$91.01

Total Shares1,687

Combined PnL-$57.73

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

487h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tunatyler	Yesavg 87¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$71.1	57% 894-676 (1570)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 89.2¢	$268.07	$621.79	+$42.86	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 93.3¢	$432.72	$436.81	+$4.1	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 92.3¢	$322.03	$321	-$1.03	72% 344-131 (475)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$88	$92	+$3.5	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Noavg 7.6¢	$88.41	$64.12	-$24.29	47% 484-550 (1034)
Chungvicular<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$46.17	$52.44	+$5.99	46% 49-58 (107)
StupidMonkeyyy<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$40.04	$41.86	+$1.82	50% 150-151 (301)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$45	$39.12	+$0.93	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
GA Gaditima<$100	Yesavg 89.4¢	$36.22	$37.28	+$1.06	48% 6897-7543 (14440)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$47.65	$17.65	-$30	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 6.2¢	$52.38	$5.78	-$1.41	24% 302-944 (1246)
WA WarriorHCTR	Noavg 8.9¢	$125.35	$3.41	-$1.94	17% 1065-5312 (6377)
macrosteaksCTR<$100	No	$0.05	$0.05	-$0.09	55% 3435-2832 (6267)

tunatyler

Yes

Invested

$1,758.75

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$71.1

Record

57%

894-676 (1570)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$268.07

Value

$621.79

PnL

+$42.86

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$432.72

Value

$436.81

PnL

+$4.1

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$322.03

Value

$321

PnL

-$1.03

Record

72%

344-131 (475)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$88

Value

$92

PnL

+$3.5

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

anoin123CTR<$100

Invested

$88.41

Value

$64.12

PnL

-$24.29

Record

47%

484-550 (1034)

Chungvicular<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.17

Value

$52.44

PnL

+$5.99

Record

46%

49-58 (107)

StupidMonkeyyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.04

Value

$41.86

PnL

+$1.82

Record

50%

150-151 (301)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$45

Value

$39.12

PnL

+$0.93

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

Gaditima<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.22

Value

$37.28

PnL

+$1.06

Record

48%

6897-7543 (14440)

cowcatCTR<$100

Invested

$47.65

Value

$17.65

PnL

-$30

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$52.38

Value

$5.78

PnL

-$1.41

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

WarriorHCTR

Invested

$125.35

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$1.94

Record

17%

1065-5312 (6377)

macrosteaksCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.09

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

487h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.