Will the Democratic Party win the TX-02 House seat?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 98¢ · $519 held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$519.14

Combined PnL

-$23.03

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 98¢

+14% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$468.88

Total Shares486

Combined PnL+$39.69

Yes1 trader

Total Value$50.24

Total Shares218

Combined PnL-$62.72

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 87¢	$176.51	$142.08	+$7.42	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$76.15	$76	-$0.15	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 88¢	$69.9	$75.49	+$5.59	53% 1775-1556 (3331)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 35.6¢	$115.91	$50.24	-$62.72	48% 7082-7768 (14850)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 93¢	$47.72	$48.73	+$1.01	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$39.55	$47.37	+$7.81	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 72¢	$21.64	$28.56	+$6.91	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 79¢	$19.76	$23.76	+$4	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$12.98	$17.23	+$4.26	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.72	$4.91	+$1.19	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.1	$4.75	+$1.65	78% 12472-3601 (16073)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$176.51

Value

$142.08

PnL

+$7.42

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$76.15

Value

$76

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

cowcat<$100

Invested

$69.9

Value

$75.49

PnL

+$5.59

Record

53%

1775-1556 (3331)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$115.91

Value

$50.24

PnL

-$62.72

Record

48%

7082-7768 (14850)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$47.72

Value

$48.73

PnL

+$1.01

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$39.55

Value

$47.37

PnL

+$7.81

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$21.64

Value

$28.56

PnL

+$6.91

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$19.76

Value

$23.76

PnL

+$4

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.98

Value

$17.23

PnL

+$4.26

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.72

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$1.19

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$1.65

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.