Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$91.53

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 88.5¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 89%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,691

Combined PnL+$144.96

Yes6 traders

Total Value$320.17

Total Shares2,285

Combined PnL-$53.44

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 83.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$127.41	61% 209-133 (342)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 89.5¢	$503.84	$173.71	-$5.3	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
LI lineth	Noavg 80¢	$153.6	$164.35	+$20.54	42% 254-350 (604)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 89.1¢	$133.65	$132.75	-$0.9	66% 570-300 (870)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 11.2¢	$99.92	$115.44	+$29.14	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
GR grinder1011CTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$5.11	$111.66	+$26.25	38% 120-198 (318)
DO donthackme	Noavg 93.4¢	$92.39	$94.66	+$2.27	73% 12591-4594 (17185)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$51.49	$85.31	+$33.81	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$75.18	$77.04	+$1.86	61% 15575-9879 (25454)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$73.24	$67.03	-$2.33	77% 11960-3646 (15606)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$24.75	$26.21	+$1.54	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.4¢	$54	$7.1	-$0.67	50% 6059-6159 (12218)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$2.22	$1.93	-$0.13	28% 329-852 (1181)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$0.32	$0.41	+$0.09	40% 706-1070 (1776)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$313.77	$0.24	-$142.06	48% 6887-7538 (14425)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$1,545.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$127.41

Record

61%

209-133 (342)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$503.84

Value

$173.71

PnL

-$5.3

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

lineth

Invested

$153.6

Value

$164.35

PnL

+$20.54

Record

42%

254-350 (604)

melonmanm

Invested

$133.65

Value

$132.75

PnL

-$0.9

Record

66%

570-300 (870)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$99.92

Value

$115.44

PnL

+$29.14

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

grinder1011CTR

Yes

Invested

$5.11

Value

$111.66

PnL

+$26.25

Record

38%

120-198 (318)

donthackme

Invested

$92.39

Value

$94.66

PnL

+$2.27

Record

73%

12591-4594 (17185)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.49

Value

$85.31

PnL

+$33.81

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$75.18

Value

$77.04

PnL

+$1.86

Record

61%

15575-9879 (25454)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$73.24

Value

$67.03

PnL

-$2.33

Record

77%

11960-3646 (15606)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$24.75

Value

$26.21

PnL

+$1.54

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$0.67

Record

50%

6059-6159 (12218)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.13

Record

28%

329-852 (1181)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.09

Record

40%

706-1070 (1776)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$313.77

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$142.06

Record

48%

6887-7538 (14425)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 89%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.9%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.