Will the Democratic Party win the RI-02 House seat?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$2.1K
$0.54
95.8¢ → 95.1¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thoodr | Yesavg 96.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$8.25 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
FL FlyingPlaty | Yesavg 95.7¢ | $437.48 | $434.69 | -$0.27 | 98% 982-16 (998) |
 GayPride | Yesavg 92¢ | $138.92 | $138.65 | +$5.32 | 49% 357-367 (724) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yes | $97.41 | $97.41 | +$3.74 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.