Will the Democratic Party win the PA-08 House seat?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 89¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$137.9

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 88.5¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,026

Combined PnL+$138.35

No1 trader

Total Value$10.32

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$0.45

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

468h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lissartter	Yesavg 88¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$8.25	42% 5357-7373 (12730)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 88.8¢	$781.28	$778.35	-$2.93	48% 6239-6892 (13131)
bernardbulletin	Yesavg 80¢	$612	$673.2	+$65.03	69% 1006-451 (1457)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 82¢	$479.82	$517.63	+$37.81	70% 842-365 (1207)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 52.6¢	$42	$70.3	+$28.69	53% 1572-1395 (2967)
AN anciano<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$37.45	$38.1	+$0.65	52% 1161-1068 (2229)
BE berlinskies<$100	Yesavg 83.6¢	$10	$10.53	+$0.59	58% 6038-4391 (10429)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 86.3¢	$10.2	$10.46	+$0.26	57% 17353-12958 (30311)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$10.77	$10.32	-$0.45	25% 185-554 (739)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$1,452.1

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$8.25

Record

42%

5357-7373 (12730)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$781.28

Value

$778.35

PnL

-$2.93

Record

48%

6239-6892 (13131)

bernardbulletin

Yes

Invested

$612

Value

$673.2

PnL

+$65.03

Record

69%

1006-451 (1457)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$479.82

Value

$517.63

PnL

+$37.81

Record

70%

842-365 (1207)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$42

Value

$70.3

PnL

+$28.69

Record

53%

1572-1395 (2967)

anciano<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.45

Value

$38.1

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

1161-1068 (2229)

berlinskies<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.53

PnL

+$0.59

Record

58%

6038-4391 (10429)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.46

PnL

+$0.26

Record

57%

17353-12958 (30311)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$10.77

Value

$10.32

PnL

-$0.45

Record

25%

185-554 (739)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

468h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.9%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.