Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 11¢ · $516 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$515.53
-$52.74
12.3¢ → 11¢
-10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
341h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 13.3¢ | $266.4 | $220 | -$56.4 | 40% 704-1059 (1763) |
TH TheImpasse | Noavg 90.6¢ | $129.56 | $127.27 | -$2.29 | 22% 145-528 (673) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $66.59 | $66.59 | +$0 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $60 | $66 | +$6 | 52% 2049-1868 (3917) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $35.72 | $35.67 | -$0.05 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$266.4
Value
$220
PnL
-$56.4
Record
40%
704-1059 (1763)
Invested
$129.56
Value
$127.27
PnL
-$2.29
Record
22%
145-528 (673)
Invested
$66.59
Value
$66.59
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$60
Value
$66
PnL
+$6
Record
52%
2049-1868 (3917)
Invested
$35.72
Value
$35.67
PnL
-$0.05
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.