Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 92¢ · $292 held · ends Nov 4

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$292.09

Combined PnL

$32.69

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$132.44

Total Shares134

Combined PnL-$3.04

Yes4 traders

Total Value$159.65

Total Shares2,127

Combined PnL+$35.73

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheImpasse	Noavg 96¢	$134.14	$132.44	-$3.04	21% 144-526 (670)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$59.32	$77.29	+$17.97	50% 1654-1640 (3294)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$71.26	$76.35	+$5.09	50% 2569-2616 (5185)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$27.71	$4.78	+$16.54	52% 2041-1863 (3904)
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.6¢	$5.1	$1.23	-$3.87	53% 904-788 (1692)

TheImpasse

Invested

$134.14

Value

$132.44

PnL

-$3.04

Record

21%

144-526 (670)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.32

Value

$77.29

PnL

+$17.97

Record

50%

1654-1640 (3294)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.26

Value

$76.35

PnL

+$5.09

Record

50%

2569-2616 (5185)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.71

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$16.54

Record

52%

2041-1863 (3904)

immanuelcanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.1

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$3.87

Record

53%

904-788 (1692)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.