Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 95¢ · $931 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 67%
$931.1
$45.67
91.6¢ → 95.1¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
421h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 macrosteaks | Yes | $696.28 | $696.28 | +$34.36 | 55% 3332-2765 (6097) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 96.9¢ | $85.03 | $83.59 | -$1.53 | 77% 11787-3615 (15402) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 89.5¢ | $70.69 | $69.38 | -$1.31 | 51% 2118-2030 (4148) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Yesavg 83.3¢ | $34.98 | $40.01 | +$5.03 | 53% 1578-1415 (2993) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $7.35 | $17.45 | +$10.1 | 47% 2047-2310 (4357) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $14.3 | $14.26 | -$0.34 | 73% 12181-4482 (16663) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 94.8¢ | $4.74 | $4.76 | +$0.02 | 50% 20101-20430 (40531) |
IW iWasEnough<$100 | Yesavg 94.8¢ | $5 | $4.76 | +$0.02 | 51% 11593-10978 (22571) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $1.29 | $0.62 | -$0.68 | 50% 6058-6159 (12217) |
macrosteaksInvested
$696.28
Value
$696.28
PnL
+$34.36
Record
55%
3332-2765 (6097)
Invested
$85.03
Value
$83.59
PnL
-$1.53
Record
77%
11787-3615 (15402)
Invested
$70.69
Value
$69.38
PnL
-$1.31
Record
51%
2118-2030 (4148)
Invested
$34.98
Value
$40.01
PnL
+$5.03
Record
53%
1578-1415 (2993)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$7.35
Value
$17.45
PnL
+$10.1
Record
47%
2047-2310 (4357)
Invested
$14.3
Value
$14.26
PnL
-$0.34
Record
73%
12181-4482 (16663)
Invested
$4.74
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
20101-20430 (40531)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
11593-10978 (22571)
Invested
$1.29
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$0.68
Record
50%
6058-6159 (12217)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.