Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-05 House seat?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$136.55

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 98.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,074

Combined PnL+$154.76

No2 traders

Total Value$7.34

Total Shares397

Combined PnL-$18.21

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

555h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Ryxon21	Yesavg 90¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$136.36	72% 344-131 (475)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 95¢	$393.62	$406.67	+$14.09	53% 7951-7061 (15012)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 80.8¢	$18.59	$22.57	+$4.04	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
PU purplegatto<$100	Yesavg 95.5¢	$7.64	$7.85	+$0.24	50% 6072-6173 (12245)
macrosteaksCTR<$100	No	$6.97	$6.97	-$13.13	55% 3435-2832 (6267)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 97.8¢	$4.88	$4.9	+$0.03	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$5.45	$0.37	-$5.08	39% 974-1525 (2499)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$1,461

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$136.36

Record

72%

344-131 (475)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$393.62

Value

$406.67

PnL

+$14.09

Record

53%

7951-7061 (15012)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.59

Value

$22.57

PnL

+$4.04

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

purplegatto<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.64

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

6072-6173 (12245)

macrosteaksCTR<$100

Invested

$6.97

Value

$6.97

PnL

-$13.13

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$5.08

Record

39%

974-1525 (2499)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

555h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.