Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 4.3¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

3.9¢ → 4.3¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares25,479

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$299.13

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$10.42

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

498h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SB sbimbgCTR	Noavg 4¢	$795.43	$845.15	+$49.71	70% 3203-1387 (4590)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 96.4¢	$202.44	$201.08	-$1.36	72% 337-131 (468)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Noavg 3.6¢	$8.5K	$169.17	$-2.5K	61% 284-182 (466)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 84.8¢	$81.43	$93.27	+$11.84	53% 1572-1395 (2967)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 3.8¢	$60.94	$68.54	+$7.6	45% 2377-2944 (5321)
DEGENKHAN<$100	Yesavg 97.3¢	$4.87	$4.79	-$0.06	66% 1108-565 (1673)

sbimbgCTR

Invested

$795.43

Value

$845.15

PnL

+$49.71

Record

70%

3203-1387 (4590)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$202.44

Value

$201.08

PnL

-$1.36

Record

72%

337-131 (468)

SitsToPeeCTR

Invested

$8,503.89

Value

$169.17

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

61%

284-182 (466)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.43

Value

$93.27

PnL

+$11.84

Record

53%

1572-1395 (2967)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$60.94

Value

$68.54

PnL

+$7.6

Record

45%

2377-2944 (5321)

DEGENKHAN<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.06

Record

66%

1108-565 (1673)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

498h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.4%

4.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1735.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

1835.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.