Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 1 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-14 House seat?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (9%) · Yes at 17¢ · $885 held · ends Nov 4

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 9%

Total Value

$885.04

Combined PnL

-$62.08

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$675.06

Total Shares754

Combined PnL+$64.53

Yes1 trader

Total Value$209.98

Total Shares2,000

Combined PnL-$126.6

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 79.6¢	$316.44	$355.68	+$39.24	61% 20510-12860 (33370)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 16.8¢	$336.58	$209.98	-$126.6	40% 700-1047 (1747)
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$62.55	$54.6	+$3.09	54% 3673-3178 (6851)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 82¢	$31.57	$34.46	+$2.89	31% 279-608 (887)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 82¢	$31.57	$34.46	+$2.89	31% 251-564 (815)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 82¢	$31.57	$34.46	+$2.89	32% 303-642 (945)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 82¢	$30.89	$33.71	+$2.83	28% 159-408 (567)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 82¢	$30.89	$33.71	+$2.83	41% 379-537 (916)
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 82¢	$30.89	$33.71	+$2.83	30% 184-437 (621)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 82¢	$27.61	$30.13	+$2.53	32% 304-636 (940)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 82¢	$27.61	$30.13	+$2.53	48% 3408-3679 (7087)

balthazar

Invested

$316.44

Value

$355.68

PnL

+$39.24

Record

61%

20510-12860 (33370)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.58

Value

$209.98

PnL

-$126.6

Record

40%

700-1047 (1747)

YouSayUpISayDown<$100

Invested

$62.55

Value

$54.6

PnL

+$3.09

Record

54%

3673-3178 (6851)

klli27<$100

Invested

$31.57

Value

$34.46

PnL

+$2.89

Record

31%

279-608 (887)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$31.57

Value

$34.46

PnL

+$2.89

Record

31%

251-564 (815)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$31.57

Value

$34.46

PnL

+$2.89

Record

32%

303-642 (945)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$30.89

Value

$33.71

PnL

+$2.83

Record

28%

159-408 (567)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$30.89

Value

$33.71

PnL

+$2.83

Record

41%

379-537 (916)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$30.89

Value

$33.71

PnL

+$2.83

Record

30%

184-437 (621)

akroll<$100

Invested

$27.61

Value

$30.13

PnL

+$2.53

Record

32%

304-636 (940)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$27.61

Value

$30.13

PnL

+$2.53

Record

48%

3408-3679 (7087)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.6%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$437.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

537.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.