Will the Democratic Party win the NC-06 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.0K
$21.72
88.8¢ → 89¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 89¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$8.65 | 53% 6233-5470 (11703) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $274.9 | $275 | +$0.1 | 40% 700-1047 (1747) |
 balthazar | Noavg 87.1¢ | $147.18 | $150.37 | +$3.19 | 61% 20510-12860 (33370) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $26.84 | $36.62 | +$9.78 | 50% 1637-1628 (3265) |
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $28.48 | $28.48 | +$0 | 54% 3673-3178 (6851) |
Invested
$1,539.7
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$8.65
Record
53%
6233-5470 (11703)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$274.9
Value
$275
PnL
+$0.1
Record
40%
700-1047 (1747)
balthazarInvested
$147.18
Value
$150.37
PnL
+$3.19
Record
61%
20510-12860 (33370)
Invested
$26.84
Value
$36.62
PnL
+$9.78
Record
50%
1637-1628 (3265)
Invested
$28.48
Value
$28.48
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3673-3178 (6851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.