Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$87.8

Smart Money Entry

92.1¢ → 94.7¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,894

Combined PnL+$98.18

No3 traders

Total Value$90.58

Total Shares1,693

Combined PnL-$10.38

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

460h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU burrito338	Yesavg 91.4¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	+$72.03	92% 88-8 (96)
AN anciano	Yesavg 93.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$19.38	52% 1168-1072 (2240)
SI SitsToPee	Yesavg 93.3¢	$139.94	$141.97	+$2.02	61% 284-183 (467)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Noavg 5.9¢	$37.05	$33.6	-$3.45	47% 483-550 (1033)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$35.1	$31.3	-$3.8	74% 12148-4326 (16474)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$33	$31.23	+$4.83	53% 1578-1414 (2992)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$28.8	$25.68	-$3.12	77% 9147-2771 (11918)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Yesavg 95.5¢	$5	$4.73	-$0.04	51% 11557-10943 (22500)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 95.5¢	$4.99	$4.73	-$0.04	50% 20032-20390 (40422)

burrito338

Yes

Invested

$2,193.63

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$72.03

Record

92%

88-8 (96)

anciano

Yes

Invested

$1,407.06

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$19.38

Record

52%

1168-1072 (2240)

SitsToPee

Yes

Invested

$139.94

Value

$141.97

PnL

+$2.02

Record

61%

284-183 (467)

anoin123CTR<$100

Invested

$37.05

Value

$33.6

PnL

-$3.45

Record

47%

483-550 (1033)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Invested

$35.1

Value

$31.3

PnL

-$3.8

Record

74%

12148-4326 (16474)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$33

Value

$31.23

PnL

+$4.83

Record

53%

1578-1414 (2992)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$25.68

PnL

-$3.12

Record

77%

9147-2771 (11918)

iWasEnough<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

11557-10943 (22500)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

20032-20390 (40422)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

460h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.