Will the Democratic Party win the ID-02 House seat?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $619 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$618.63
-$18.91
98.8¢ → 99.7¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 99.5¢ | $241.86 | $242.27 | +$0.41 | 41% 1444-2086 (3530) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $178.56 | $172.68 | -$0.97 | 45% 2525-3059 (5584) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 96.3¢ | $139.56 | $134.67 | -$7.16 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $33.99 | $38.01 | +$6.19 | |
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $52.43 | $115.35 | -$13.98 | 53% 3072-2742 (5814) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $31.72 | $30.19 | -$1.53 | 44% 6236-7975 (14211) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $19.76 | $19.93 | +$0.17 | 53% 28943-25862 (54805) |
PI piepedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $19.7 | $15.2 | -$4.49 | 41% 82-116 (198) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $12.6 | $13.03 | +$0.43 | 73% 13591-5101 (18692) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $9.89 | $9.97 | +$0.08 | 60% 11636-7873 (19509) |
probabilityInvested
$241.86
Value
$242.27
PnL
+$0.41
Record
41%
1444-2086 (3530)
Invested
$178.56
Value
$172.68
PnL
-$0.97
Record
45%
2525-3059 (5584)
Both legs:
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$52.43
Value
$115.35
PnL
-$13.98
Record
53%
3072-2742 (5814)
Invested
$31.72
Value
$30.19
PnL
-$1.53
Record
44%
6236-7975 (14211)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.76
Value
$19.93
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
28943-25862 (54805)
Invested
$19.7
Value
$15.2
PnL
-$4.49
Record
41%
82-116 (198)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$13.03
PnL
+$0.43
Record
73%
13591-5101 (18692)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$9.97
PnL
+$0.08
Record
60%
11636-7873 (19509)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.