Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.2K
$86.05
78.4¢ → 85¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anciano | Yesavg 82.2¢ | $656.61 | $675.31 | +$18.7 | 52% 1161-1068 (2229) |
SI SitsToPee | Yesavg 73¢ | $409.68 | $474.41 | +$64.73 | 61% 284-182 (466) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $75 | $75 | +$2.5 | 42% 5360-7379 (12739) |
IW iWasEnough<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $4.23 | +$0.13 | 51% 11451-10815 (22266) |
Invested
$656.61
Value
$675.31
PnL
+$18.7
Record
52%
1161-1068 (2229)
Invested
$409.68
Value
$474.41
PnL
+$64.73
Record
61%
284-182 (466)
Invested
$75
Value
$75
PnL
+$2.5
Record
42%
5360-7379 (12739)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.23
PnL
+$0.13
Record
51%
11451-10815 (22266)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.