Will the Democratic Party win the GA-01 House seat?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$9.52

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 87.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$792.02

Total Shares900

Combined PnL-$20.6

Yes4 traders

Total Value$315.47

Total Shares2,629

Combined PnL+$30.13

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

470h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 87¢	$8.7	$477.81	-$10.1	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 11.9¢	$303.45	$305.04	+$27.02	40% 706-1071 (1777)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 90¢	$276.2	$267.1	-$9.11	53% 7951-7061 (15012)
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Noavg 90¢	$40.5	$39.6	-$1.35	50% 1695-1681 (3376)
RA RailcoolCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$7.91	$8.63	+$1.44	52% 87-81 (168)
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$4.08	$3.99	-$0.09	53% 4111-3612 (7723)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 86¢	$3.44	$3.52	+$0.04	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	$1.68	$1.68	+$1.6	30% 2095-4887 (6982)
macrosteaksCTR<$100	Yes	$0.12	$0.12	+$0.07	55% 3435-2832 (6267)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$8.7

Value

$477.81

PnL

-$10.1

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$303.45

Value

$305.04

PnL

+$27.02

Record

40%

706-1071 (1777)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$276.2

Value

$267.1

PnL

-$9.11

Record

53%

7951-7061 (15012)

ABC12345654321<$100

Invested

$40.5

Value

$39.6

PnL

-$1.35

Record

50%

1695-1681 (3376)

RailcoolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.91

Value

$8.63

PnL

+$1.44

Record

52%

87-81 (168)

YouSayUpISayDown<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

4111-3612 (7723)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$1.6

Record

30%

2095-4887 (6982)

macrosteaksCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

470h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.9%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.