Will the Democratic Party win the FL-21 House seat?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$1.6K
$53.74
88.2¢ → 88.8¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Noavg 88¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$9.59 | 61% 208-133 (341) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $86.4 | $249.34 | +$5.69 | 41% 944-1372 (2316) |
SI SitsToPeeCTR | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $14.49 | $133.22 | +$39.47 | 61% 284-182 (466) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yes | $62.07 | $62.07 | -$1.01 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
Invested
$1,125.43
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$9.59
Record
61%
208-133 (341)
Invested
$86.4
Value
$249.34
PnL
+$5.69
Record
41%
944-1372 (2316)
Invested
$14.49
Value
$133.22
PnL
+$39.47
Record
61%
284-182 (466)
Invested
$62.07
Value
$62.07
PnL
-$1.01
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.