Will the Democratic Party win the FL-20 House seat?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$43.56

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 98.3¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,039

Combined PnL+$10.39

No2 traders

Total Value$112.23

Total Shares5,907

Combined PnL-$53.94

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

561h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$23.02	50% 6059-6159 (12218)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 94¢	$277.5	$272.23	+$11.38	72% 344-131 (475)
SI SitsToPee	Yesavg 92¢	$78.2	$192.62	+$9.42	61% 289-185 (474)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 89.3¢	$98.01	$107.91	+$9.9	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
GayPrideCTR	Noavg 3.3¢	$153.67	$88.48	-$65.19	49% 357-367 (724)
GA Gaditima<$100	Yesavg 93.5¢	$53.7	$52.68	+$2.63	48% 6887-7538 (14425)
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Yesavg 98¢	$29.38	$29.42	+$0.09	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
NadmiCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$12.5	$23.75	+$11.25	47% 2047-2314 (4361)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$3,371.4

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$23.02

Record

50%

6059-6159 (12218)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$277.5

Value

$272.23

PnL

+$11.38

Record

72%

344-131 (475)

SitsToPee

Yes

Invested

$78.2

Value

$192.62

PnL

+$9.42

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$98.01

Value

$107.91

PnL

+$9.9

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

GayPrideCTR

Invested

$153.67

Value

$88.48

PnL

-$65.19

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

Gaditima<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.7

Value

$52.68

PnL

+$2.63

Record

48%

6887-7538 (14425)

ABC12345654321<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.38

Value

$29.42

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

NadmiCTR<$100

Invested

$12.5

Value

$23.75

PnL

+$11.25

Record

47%

2047-2314 (4361)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

561h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.