Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 17¢ · $985 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$985.17
$631.42
9.5¢ → 17¢
+79% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
4871h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $5.5 | $431.08 | +$434.34 | 45% 2390-2958 (5348) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $167 | $290.7 | +$132.9 | 53% 21911-19053 (40964) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $122.4 | $175 | +$52.6 | 48% 6875-7517 (14392) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $12.29 | $67.99 | +$5.09 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $9.18 | $14.28 | +$5.53 | 32% 6353-13252 (19605) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2.88 | $3.65 | +$0.36 | 51% 2118-2030 (4148) |
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.91 | $1.91 | +$0.61 | 61% 289-183 (472) |
Invested
$5.5
Value
$431.08
PnL
+$434.34
Record
45%
2390-2958 (5348)
Invested
$167
Value
$290.7
PnL
+$132.9
Record
53%
21911-19053 (40964)
Invested
$122.4
Value
$175
PnL
+$52.6
Record
48%
6875-7517 (14392)
Invested
$12.29
Value
$67.99
PnL
+$5.09
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$14.28
PnL
+$5.53
Record
32%
6353-13252 (19605)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$3.65
PnL
+$0.36
Record
51%
2118-2030 (4148)
Invested
$1.91
Value
$1.91
PnL
+$0.61
Record
61%
289-183 (472)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.