Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$30.05
63.9¢ → 60.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$0.23 | 20% 312-1273 (1585) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67¢ | $807.56 | $747.3 | -$60.27 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33¢ | $398.31 | $458.03 | +$60.04 | |
SB sbimbg | Noavg 63¢ | $311.73 | $306.78 | -$4.95 | 70% 3149-1361 (4510) |
LI lineth<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $71.94 | $65.26 | -$6.68 | 41% 243-350 (593) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 33.2¢ | $112.68 | $43.43 | +$39.02 | 50% 1654-1640 (3294) |
11 11122<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $11.7 | $14.36 | +$2.66 | 44% 1398-1812 (3210) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$1,216.92
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$0.23
Record
20%
312-1273 (1585)
Both legs:
Invested
$311.73
Value
$306.78
PnL
-$4.95
Record
70%
3149-1361 (4510)
Invested
$71.94
Value
$65.26
PnL
-$6.68
Record
41%
243-350 (593)
Invested
$112.68
Value
$43.43
PnL
+$39.02
Record
50%
1654-1640 (3294)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$14.36
PnL
+$2.66
Record
44%
1398-1812 (3210)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.