Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$2.3K
$217.12
83.2¢ → 97¢
+17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
293h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL Gladius7 | Yesavg 82.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.9K | +$290.02 | 49% 90-95 (185) |
 vinii | Yesavg 84.6¢ | $261.23 | $301.46 | +$40.22 | 74% 2716-975 (3691) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Noavg 10.9¢ | $131.17 | $28.8 | -$102.37 | 18% 521-2334 (2855) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $13.88 | $4.76 | -$9.12 | 47% 2033-2250 (4283) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $4.09 | $2.46 | -$1.64 | 39% 1760-2797 (4557) |
Invested
$1,641.77
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$290.02
Record
49%
90-95 (185)
viniiInvested
$261.23
Value
$301.46
PnL
+$40.22
Record
74%
2716-975 (3691)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$131.17
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$102.37
Record
18%
521-2334 (2855)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$13.88
Value
$4.76
PnL
-$9.12
Record
47%
2033-2250 (4283)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$2.46
PnL
-$1.64
Record
39%
1760-2797 (4557)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.