Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-05 House seat?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 4

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$189.51

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 94.9¢

+74% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,526

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$461.12

Total Shares4,685

Combined PnL$-1.9K

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME melonmanm	Noavg 28.7¢	$725.62	$2.3K	+$1.6K	64% 603-333 (936)
clazzy1	Noavg 85¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$63.74	64% 492-273 (765)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Yesavg 34.3¢	$1.9K	$365.52	-$322.87	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
└ No leg	Noavg 78¢	$192.44	$222.91	+$30.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.3¢	$495.88	$142.61	-$353.34
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 92.4¢	$366.4	$361.6	-$4.8	56% 16134-12882 (29016)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 50.5¢	$5.2K	$357.25	$-1.5K	45% 2914-3566 (6480)
PE peepeepooppoopARB<$100	Yesavg 19.1¢	$678.92	$302.99	-$223.04	50% 2495-2452 (4947)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.1¢	$386.53	$192.08	-$178.05
└ No leg	Noavg 94¢	$115.26	$110.9	-$44.99
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 89.2¢	$570.46	$199.8	+$44.75	53% 8440-7509 (15949)
Hyperlong	Noavg 84.5¢	$175.24	$188.03	+$12.79	47% 317-362 (679)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 7.4¢	$2.7K	$89.44	-$396.95	48% 7297-8002 (15299)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.7¢	$20.6	$8.62	-$11.04	56% 627-484 (1111)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$4.79	$4.52	-$0.27	39% 5797-9111 (14908)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$34	$3.35	+$2.96	49% 2686-2849 (5535)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$2.33	$2.46	+$0.13	31% 2683-6056 (8739)

melonmanm

Invested

$725.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

64%

603-333 (936)

clazzy1

Invested

$1,008.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$63.74

Record

64%

492-273 (765)

cigarettesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,886.85

Value

$365.52

PnL

-$322.87

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

Both legs:

No$192.4478¢+$30.46

Yes$495.8834.3¢-$353.34

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$366.4

Value

$361.6

PnL

-$4.8

Record

56%

16134-12882 (29016)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,195.15

Value

$357.25

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

45%

2914-3566 (6480)

peepeepooppoopARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$678.92

Value

$302.99

PnL

-$223.04

Record

50%

2495-2452 (4947)

Both legs:

Yes$386.5319.1¢-$178.05

No$115.2694¢-$44.99

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$570.46

Value

$199.8

PnL

+$44.75

Record

53%

8440-7509 (15949)

Hyperlong

Invested

$175.24

Value

$188.03

PnL

+$12.79

Record

47%

317-362 (679)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,676.84

Value

$89.44

PnL

-$396.95

Record

48%

7297-8002 (15299)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.6

Value

$8.62

PnL

-$11.04

Record

56%

627-484 (1111)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.27

Record

39%

5797-9111 (14908)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$2.96

Record

49%

2686-2849 (5535)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$0.13

Record

31%

2683-6056 (8739)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.1%

94.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.