Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 13¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes87¢No13¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$134.08

Smart Money Entry

13.8¢ → 13¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares8,423

Combined PnL-$134.53

Yes1 trader

Total Value$47.09

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$0.44

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 13.6¢	$442.83	$439.44	-$3.38	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
DI dips.CTR	Noavg 14.2¢	$276.33	$262.15	-$14.18	46% 7316-8503 (15819)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Noavg 14.5¢	$981.91	$243.33	-$124.49	45% 2314-2842 (5156)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 12.2¢	$152.15	$139.07	+$9.05	72% 6934-2740 (9674)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 78.9¢	$46.65	$47.09	+$0.44	28% 5957-15587 (21544)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 14.6¢	$46.44	$44.88	-$1.55	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 12.6¢	$1.1	$1.14	+$0.04	41% 943-1365 (2308)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$442.83

Value

$439.44

PnL

-$3.38

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

dips.CTR

Invested

$276.33

Value

$262.15

PnL

-$14.18

Record

46%

7316-8503 (15819)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Invested

$981.91

Value

$243.33

PnL

-$124.49

Record

45%

2314-2842 (5156)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$152.15

Value

$139.07

PnL

+$9.05

Record

72%

6934-2740 (9674)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.65

Value

$47.09

PnL

+$0.44

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$46.44

Value

$44.88

PnL

-$1.55

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.04

Record

41%

943-1365 (2308)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.5%

13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$590.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

690.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.