Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party control the Arizona Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 23¢ · $53 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$53.27
-$16.4
Research grade
AvoidNo at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.6¢ | $26.96 | $20.09 | -$6.87 | — |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $14.71 | $9.43 | -$5.28 | 48% 3423-3707 (7130) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $7.8 | $3.75 | -$4.05 | 52% 4926-4535 (9461) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.