Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 40%-45%?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 19¢ · $858 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$858.41
$163.25
17.4¢ → 18.8¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $442.92 | $402 | -$4.31 | 21% 292-1070 (1362) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.1¢ | $301.81 | $289.44 | -$13.56 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $100.9 | $112.56 | +$9.26 | |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $257.23 | $370.16 | +$112.93 | — 5-1 (6) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $38.49 | $51.62 | +$13.14 | 60% 3307-2217 (5524) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $39.89 | $34.63 | +$37.19 | — 1-0 (1) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$442.92
Value
$402
PnL
-$4.31
Record
21%
292-1070 (1362)
Both legs:
Invested
$257.23
Value
$370.16
PnL
+$112.93
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Invested
$38.49
Value
$51.62
PnL
+$13.14
Record
60%
3307-2217 (5524)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$39.89
Value
$34.63
PnL
+$37.19
Record
—
1-0 (1)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.