Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-34 House election by 12% or more?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 97¢ · $645 held · ended Nov 4

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$645.45

Combined PnL

$418.35

Smart Money Entry

22.6¢ → 97.4¢

+331% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$644.25

Total Shares660

Combined PnL+$455.08

No1 trader

Total Value$1.2

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$36.73

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+66 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RadioCCOD	Yesavg 20.2¢	$33.78	$162.98	+$128.73	36% 102-179 (281)
RayGuy	Yesavg 12.4¢	$19.4	$153.23	+$120.57	82% 23-5 (28)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 24.7¢	$18.55	$143.56	+$98.32	45% 3008-3697 (6705)
Haradwaith	Yes	$102.5	$102.5	+$61.7	40% 6564-9846 (16410)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100	Yesavg 17.2¢	$9.53	$29.08	+$19.54	43% 15-20 (35)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yes	$27.7	$27.7	+$25.36	67% 27573-13867 (41440)
HolyMoses7<$100	Yesavg 93.8¢	$24.22	$25.2	+$0.86	50% 1759-1780 (3539)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$38.6	$1.2	-$36.73	42% 2368-3244 (5612)

RadioCCOD

Yes

Invested

$33.78

Value

$162.98

PnL

+$128.73

Record

36%

102-179 (281)

RayGuy

Yes

Invested

$19.4

Value

$153.23

PnL

+$120.57

Record

82%

23-5 (28)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$18.55

Value

$143.56

PnL

+$98.32

Record

45%

3008-3697 (6705)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$102.5

Value

$102.5

PnL

+$61.7

Record

40%

6564-9846 (16410)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.53

Value

$29.08

PnL

+$19.54

Record

43%

15-20 (35)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.7

Value

$27.7

PnL

+$25.36

Record

67%

27573-13867 (41440)

HolyMoses7<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.22

Value

$25.2

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

1759-1780 (3539)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$38.6

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$36.73

Record

42%

2368-3244 (5612)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+66 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.