Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 6%-9%?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 100%
$1.1K
$963.56
9.4¢ → 97.5¢
+935% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
141h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $37.68 | $502.07 | +$464.39 | 41% 3647-5210 (8857) |
 HolyMoses7 | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $23 | $265.37 | +$242.37 | 50% 1831-1845 (3676) |
 probability<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $7.69 | $94.5 | +$86.81 | 38% 1810-2980 (4790) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $8 | $75.6 | +$67.6 | 15% 5011-29434 (34445) |
RA RadioCCOD<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $3.88 | $68.26 | +$64.38 | 36% 105-187 (292) |
 thanksforplayin<$100 | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $7.31 | $29.01 | +$21.7 | 55% 1477-1199 (2676) |
 RayGuy<$100 | Yesavg 88.8¢ | $17.76 | $18.9 | +$1.14 | 77% 30-9 (39) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $1 | $12.25 | +$11.25 | 22% 657-2370 (3027) |
LP lpgb<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $0.35 | $4.27 | +$3.92 | 25% 697-2085 (2782) |
Invested
$37.68
Value
$502.07
PnL
+$464.39
Record
41%
3647-5210 (8857)
HolyMoses7Invested
$23
Value
$265.37
PnL
+$242.37
Record
50%
1831-1845 (3676)
probability<$100Invested
$7.69
Value
$94.5
PnL
+$86.81
Record
38%
1810-2980 (4790)
2B9S<$100Invested
$8
Value
$75.6
PnL
+$67.6
Record
15%
5011-29434 (34445)
Invested
$3.88
Value
$68.26
PnL
+$64.38
Record
36%
105-187 (292)
thanksforplayin<$100Invested
$7.31
Value
$29.01
PnL
+$21.7
Record
55%
1477-1199 (2676)
RayGuy<$100Invested
$17.76
Value
$18.9
PnL
+$1.14
Record
77%
30-9 (39)
Invested
$1
Value
$12.25
PnL
+$11.25
Record
22%
657-2370 (3027)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$4.27
PnL
+$3.92
Record
25%
697-2085 (2782)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938
Yes — $502.07
HolyMoses7
Yes — $265.37
probability
Yes — $94.5
2B9S
Yes — $75.6
RadioCCOD
Yes — $68.26
thanksforplayin
Yes — $29.01
RayGuy
Yes — $18.9
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179
Yes — $12.25
lpgb
Yes — $4.27