Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-15 House election by 9%-12%?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 98¢ · $246 held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$246.33

Combined PnL

-$45.7

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 98¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$241.46

Total Shares248

Combined PnL-$19.58

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.86

Total Shares324

Combined PnL-$26.12

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 82.5¢	$186.41	$132.75	-$32.1	41% 6396-9374 (15770)
RayGuy<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$28.66	$40.52	+$11.86	84% 21-4 (25)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.4	$29.55	+$0.15	49% 8980-9523 (18503)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$19.44	$19.7	+$0.26	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$18.7	$18.95	+$0.25	46% 10400-12132 (22532)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$24.23	$3.96	-$20.27	33% 81-166 (247)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$5.52	$0.6	-$4.92	18% 4435-20817 (25252)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yes	$0.3	$0.3	-$0.94	18% 34-151 (185)

Haradwaith

Invested

$186.41

Value

$132.75

PnL

-$32.1

Record

41%

6396-9374 (15770)

RayGuy<$100

Invested

$28.66

Value

$40.52

PnL

+$11.86

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$29.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

8980-9523 (18503)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.44

Value

$19.7

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$18.7

Value

$18.95

PnL

+$0.25

Record

46%

10400-12132 (22532)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.23

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$20.27

Record

33%

81-166 (247)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.52

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$4.92

Record

18%

4435-20817 (25252)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.94

Record

18%

34-151 (185)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.