Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-15 House election by 12% or more?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 67¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$1.4K
$992.47
19.4¢ → 67.3¢
+248% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Late
62h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chungvicular | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $224.81 | $954.2 | +$724.27 | 45% 81-98 (179) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 13.3¢ | $126.23 | $188.99 | +$236.74 | 34% 19169-36810 (55979) |
RA RadioCCOD | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $16.03 | $185.06 | +$167.1 | 32% 81-170 (251) |
 RayGuy<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $19 | $55.52 | +$18.6 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
 HolyMoses7<$100 | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $4.5 | $53.41 | +$48.25 | 50% 1753-1780 (3533) |
LA lava-lavaCTR | Noavg 80¢ | $206.95 | $6.73 | -$200.22 | 43% 592-781 (1373) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $0.12 | $1.41 | +$1.03 | 72% 13808-5339 (19147) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Noavg 34.9¢ | $3.66 | $0.27 | -$3.3 | 42% 2327-3174 (5501) |
ChungvicularInvested
$224.81
Value
$954.2
PnL
+$724.27
Record
45%
81-98 (179)
Invested
$126.23
Value
$188.99
PnL
+$236.74
Record
34%
19169-36810 (55979)
Invested
$16.03
Value
$185.06
PnL
+$167.1
Record
32%
81-170 (251)
RayGuy<$100Invested
$19
Value
$55.52
PnL
+$18.6
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
HolyMoses7<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
$53.41
PnL
+$48.25
Record
50%
1753-1780 (3533)
Invested
$206.95
Value
$6.73
PnL
-$200.22
Record
43%
592-781 (1373)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
$1.41
PnL
+$1.03
Record
72%
13808-5339 (19147)
Invested
$3.66
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$3.3
Record
42%
2327-3174 (5501)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.