Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-07 House election by 40%-45%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 66¢ · $556 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$555.72
$10.37
65.3¢ → 66.3¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
405h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RayGuy | Yesavg 88.7¢ | $305.7 | $321.29 | -$40.06 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $71.09 | $138.77 | +$72.68 | 17% 4496-22007 (26503) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $89.91 | $45.73 | -$64.16 | 55% 5185-4273 (9458) |
 HolyMoses7<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $4.98 | $35.28 | +$43.26 | 50% 1753-1780 (3533) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100 | Noavg 67.2¢ | $16.86 | $9.06 | -$7.8 | 32% 8-17 (25) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yes | $5.3 | $5.3 | +$6.45 | 67% 27476-13829 (41305) |
RayGuyInvested
$305.7
Value
$321.29
PnL
-$40.06
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
2B9SInvested
$71.09
Value
$138.77
PnL
+$72.68
Record
17%
4496-22007 (26503)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$89.91
Value
$45.73
PnL
-$64.16
Record
55%
5185-4273 (9458)
HolyMoses7<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
$35.28
PnL
+$43.26
Record
50%
1753-1780 (3533)
Invested
$16.86
Value
$9.06
PnL
-$7.8
Record
32%
8-17 (25)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.3
PnL
+$6.45
Record
67%
27476-13829 (41305)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.