Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-07 House election by 40%-45%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 86¢ · $701 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$700.76
$162.86
61.8¢ → 86.3¢
+40% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
497h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RayGuy | Yesavg 85.7¢ | $367.64 | $394.52 | +$26.87 | 77% 30-9 (39) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $58.06 | $218.66 | +$159.7 | 15% 5011-29434 (34445) |
 HolyMoses7<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $4.98 | $43.35 | +$38.37 | 50% 1831-1845 (3676) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $90.47 | $31.41 | -$59.05 | 55% 5498-4534 (10032) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $26.61 | $6.46 | +$6.99 | 62% 35968-22491 (58459) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $16.12 | $6.09 | -$10.02 | 45% 17-21 (38) |
RayGuyInvested
$367.64
Value
$394.52
PnL
+$26.87
Record
77%
30-9 (39)
2B9SInvested
$58.06
Value
$218.66
PnL
+$159.7
Record
15%
5011-29434 (34445)
HolyMoses7<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
$43.35
PnL
+$38.37
Record
50%
1831-1845 (3676)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$90.47
Value
$31.41
PnL
-$59.05
Record
55%
5498-4534 (10032)
Invested
$26.61
Value
$6.46
PnL
+$6.99
Record
62%
35968-22491 (58459)
Invested
$16.12
Value
$6.09
PnL
-$10.02
Record
45%
17-21 (38)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.