Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-07 House election by 35%-40%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 11¢ · $197 held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$196.77
-$67.55
21.2¢ → 10.7¢
-50% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Noavg 81.9¢ | $116.5 | $116.58 | +$0.08 | 17% 4496-22007 (26503) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $134.81 | $53.9 | -$79.26 | 55% 17-14 (31) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $9.48 | $14.25 | +$3.83 | 47% 4061-4609 (8670) |
 RayGuyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.6 | $6.84 | +$6.84 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
 HolyMoses7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $3.37 | $4.83 | +$1.47 | 50% 1753-1780 (3533) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $0.87 | $0.36 | -$0.51 | 32% 8-17 (25) |
2B9SInvested
$116.5
Value
$116.58
PnL
+$0.08
Record
17%
4496-22007 (26503)
Invested
$134.81
Value
$53.9
PnL
-$79.26
Record
55%
17-14 (31)
Invested
$9.48
Value
$14.25
PnL
+$3.83
Record
47%
4061-4609 (8670)
RayGuyCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
$6.84
PnL
+$6.84
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100Invested
$3.37
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$1.47
Record
50%
1753-1780 (3533)
Invested
$0.87
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$0.51
Record
32%
8-17 (25)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.