Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-07 House election by 25%-30%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $45 held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$45.39
-$27.49
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $39.75 | $39.42 | -$0.33 | 31% 4457-9735 (14192) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $9.69 | $2.13 | -$7.56 | 47% 4058-4608 (8666) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $6.32 | $1.48 | -$4.84 | 17% 4495-21985 (26480) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $10.8 | $1.04 | -$9.76 | 55% 5184-4273 (9457) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.38 | $1.02 | -$5.28 | 54% 12407-10640 (23047) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.03 | $0.3 | +$0.27 | 52% 30802-28940 (59742) |
Invested
$39.75
Value
$39.42
PnL
-$0.33
Record
31%
4457-9735 (14192)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$7.56
Record
47%
4058-4608 (8666)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$6.32
Value
$1.48
PnL
-$4.84
Record
17%
4495-21985 (26480)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$1.04
PnL
-$9.76
Record
55%
5184-4273 (9457)
Invested
$0.38
Value
$1.02
PnL
-$5.28
Record
54%
12407-10640 (23047)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.3
PnL
+$0.27
Record
52%
30802-28940 (59742)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.